Systematic Literature Review: Metode Forecasting Komoditas Biji Kopi dalam Supply Chain Management
Abstract
Penelitian ini memiki tujuan untuk melakukan identifikasi, evaluasi dan merangkum suatu metode forecasting yang ada dalam manajemen rantai pasok biji kopi. Dengan adanya pendekatan Systematic Literature Review (SLR), analisis dapat dilakukan terhadap 12 jurnal yang dipublikasi pada tahun 2019 - 2024. Hasilnya memperlihatkan bahwa metode statistik, terutama Exponential Smoothing merupakan metode yang paling sering dipakai dan tentunya efektif dalam melakukan prediksi permintaan serta pasokan pada data yang stabil. Namun, efektivitasnya bergantung pada pola musiman dan kualitas. Selain itu, metode forecasting dipengaruhi oleh karakteristik data. Metode seperti Exponential Smoothing, model statistik berbasis Bayesian, dan Machine Learning efektif untuk pola data musiman dan kompleks. Peneliti harus melakukan pertimbangan pada konteks serta karakterisik suatu data untuk melakukan pemilihan pada metode yang sesuai, meminimalkan kelemahan dan mencapai hasil yang optimal. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi panduan untuk industri kopi dan akademisi dalam pemahaman tren serta memilih metode forecasting yang efisien.
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